The impact of the housing affordability index on marriage rates in the Czech Republic

The long-term growth in real estate prices in the Czech Republic raises questions about the impact of reduced housing affordability on the stability of family life and marriage rates. The aim of this study was to conduct a detailed assessment of the characteristics and mutual influence of the housing affordability index (HAI) and marriage rates in the Czech Republic in the period 2008-2024. Data were collected through content analysis from the Czech Statistical Office and processed using Pearson's correlation coefficient and linear and multi-criteria regression, considering time lags. The correlation between the HAI and marriage rates was very weak positive (0.120), but for year-on-year changes in the HAI (∆HAI) and marriage rates, it was weak to moderately strong positive (0.391). Linear regression for ∆IDB and marriage rate with a 1-year lag (lag=4) was statistically insignificant, but with a 6-month lag (lag=2), the growth in ∆IDB was statistically significantly associated with a subsequent increase in ∆marriage rate. The effect of the year-on- year change in the unemployment rate and average monthly gross wages, as control variables, was not statistically significant in the multi-criteria regression model. However, the limitations of the study lie in the lack of other key economic and social factors and in the use of average data values in the calculation of IDB.